TL;DR on framework
- Higher score should mean something is better, not worse, right?
- Combining scores from sub-sections is weird (e.g. low supply high demand = high value i.e. low score)?
- Classification section score is weird - why score based on how competitors have performed?
- Form feels very long and repetitive for my approach. Can be rearranged and simplified. For example classification should come first since I need to research that anyways.
- Sections feel redundant when the product is the token.
- Feels too qualitative. Need more quant inputs. Personally I thought the most helpful piece of info were the 3 “key models”. The rest just feels like topping on the cake. So maybe we can add a section or a template for some models - e.g. map out flow vs demand, current ownership vs future ownership, theoretical returns (under diff scenarios)
Summary
My overall score: 70/100 (good)
Mostly driven by innovation, history of weathering 2 price crashes, and ongoing team commitment
| Demand |
Supply |
Ecosystem |
| 60/100 |
50/100 |
80/100 |
Key models
- Actual returns
heavily influenced by asset price volatility, still somewhat good (surprisingly!), though slowly dropping as both price and APY drops.
|
Early (June - July ‘21) |
During hype (Nov - Dec ‘21) |
Today (March - Apr ‘22) |
| Asset Price |
$201 - $464 |
$1112 - $708 |
$41 - $26.3 |
| APY |
200,000% |
7,000% |
900% |
| Monthly yield |
1060% |
511% |
253% |
| Returns if staked |
24.5x |
3.2x |
1.6x |
| Returns if not staked |
2.3x |
0.63x |
0.64x |
- Boundary scenario - price drops to floor 1 DAI :: 1 OHM
Price shouldn’t drop below 1 DAI because Olympus will buy back OHM at slightly under 1 DAI and also burn the buy backs.
Treasury - will remain large cuz it’s protocol owned, and revenue will continue to come, so OHM supply can slowly expand to match the growth of its treasury.
Question - will this cause protocols abandon Olympus? Not much - because that’s not a big source of revenue today.
2. Bear scenario - Staked returns drop more cuz asset price drop faster than APY can support it
They may be an outflow of stakers that drives price down more (like during the last price drop) but it wi ll reached a floor determined by treasury assets (and probably higher) so project is sustainable. (see screenshots showing last crash Oct - Dec 21)
It may be a slow death spiral but definitely not a fast one
